Washington, D.C. — “Illegal aliens are hearing our message to leave now… we will find them, we will arrest them, and they will never return,” declared DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin in a press briefing Tuesday as officials celebrated what they call a record-breaking immigration enforcement milestone. Department of Homeland Security
Senior DHS officials say:
- More than 2.5 million unauthorized immigrants have left the U.S. since President Trump took office in January 2025. Department of Homeland Security
- Of those, over 605,000 are reported deportations carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Department of Homeland Security
- The administration claims the remaining nearly 1.9 million left voluntarily — through a combination of departures on their own and with assistance after using the CBP Home app. Department of Homeland Security
But journalists and independent analysts caution:
- The basis for the “self-deportation” tally is unclear and may draw on estimates rather than confirmed departures. A recent investigation found CBP Home tracked only a fraction of voluntary departures — on the order of tens of thousands, not millions. ProPublica
- Think tanks such as the Center for Immigration Studies — often aligned with enforcement advocacy — are cited in some of the administration’s figures, but their estimates are debated in academic and policy circles. The Atlantic
Conversation: What the Numbers Actually Say
Reporter: “Does DHS really have data proving 1.9 million people are self-deporting?”
Policy Expert:
“Not in the sense of confirmed, documented departures. The official CBP Home app data suggest far fewer departures are directly tracked. Claims in the millions appear to rest on extrapolations or indirect estimates that even the department hasn’t fully explained.” ProPublica
ICE Arrests and Deportations: What Independent Data Shows
ICE publishes regular statistics on interior enforcement, and recent reporting casts some of the administration’s framing in a different light:
- A recent report outside DHS shows ICE has made hundreds of thousands of arrests in 2025 — but a surprisingly large share were of people without criminal records. People.com
- Historical data on deportations (pre-2025) shows annual removals typically numbered in the low hundreds of thousands, with CBP and ICE sharing enforcement duties. migrationpolicy.org
Experts note that removal orders are not always executed, and many individuals with orders remain in the U.S., complicating simple totals of people “leaving.” migrationpolicy.org
CBP Home App: A New Twist on “Self-Deportation”
The CBP Home app — formerly known as CBP One — was repurposed in 2025 to allow undocumented immigrants to electronically submit intent to depart and receive government assistance toward that departure. Congress.gov
Supporters claim:
The app simplifies voluntary departures and incentivizes migrants to leave legally.
Critics counter:
- Independent reporting suggests only around 25,000 departures have been documented via the app so far — far below the claimed “1.9 million.” ProPublica
- Many who leave after registering do so independently, and researchers warn that the app’s impact on broad migration flows is modest compared to enforcement actions at the border and interior. ProPublica
Housing Market Connection: Theory vs. Evidence
Administration figures have linked reduced housing costs with lower unauthorized population levels — citing four consecutive months of rent decreases.
But researchers emphasize:
- Rent trends are influenced by many factors — from mortgage rates to supply constraints — and isolating the effect of immigration enforcement on housing is methodologically challenging. (Independent housing market reports are not yet showing a clear causal link directly attributable to migration enforcement alone.)
Without rigorous economic analysis, claims connecting enforcement figures to rent decreases remain anecdotal rather than empirically validated.
Voices from Both Sides
ICE Official:
“We’re dismantling illegal networks and restoring the rule of law. These departures show that deterrence works.”
Civil Rights Advocate:
“These claims gloss over human stories. Fear of enforcement, not choice, may drive many departures. And the lack of transparent data on self-deportations is troubling.”
What Independent Data Tells Us
While DHS publicly reports that over 2.5 million unauthorized immigrants have left the U.S. in 2025, independent checks suggest:
- ICE deportation figures are real but far lower than the total figure. Department of Homeland Security
- Documented self-deportations via CBP Home are much lower than claimed. ProPublica
- Broader estimates may rely on assumptions that have not yet been fully explained or independently verified.
Bottom Line for Readers
The headline figure of 2.5 million departures reflects a mix of confirmed deportations, estimates, and program participation, some transparent and some not. Independent observers agree that enforcement is significantly higher in 2025 compared with recent years — but analysts also emphasize the need for clearer data and transparent methodologies before drawing sweeping conclusions about impacts on housing or migration patterns.
